Before all of the hubbub of the Oscars begins, it’s always fun to run down the categories and guess which films, directors, actors, and actresses will be nominated before they are announced. Personally, 2012 wasn’t that much of a spectacular year in my mind, but there are certain performances that stand out more than others. See my picks after the jump.

Tomorrow morning, bright and early, Seth MacFarlane and Emma Stone will announce the Oscar nominees at 5:30am PST at the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills.

When you predict the Oscars, unfortunately, you cannot judge based on your views alone. The careful consideration of the crotchety old Academy voters who pick Sandra Bullock to win Best Actress for The Blind Side must be taken in to context. They are an unruly, yet predictable bunch, and although we see things differently, it is their votes that ultimately decide who walks away with Oscar gold. So when you see my picks, take note that my guesses are based on who/what I think the Academy thinks should be nominated.

Since there is the possibility that we will see 5 to 10 nominees for the Best Picture category, I will rank in order the chances of each film getting a bid.

Best Picture
1. Lincoln
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Les Misérables
4. Argo
5. Life of Pi
6. Silver Linings Playbook
7. Moonrise Kingdom
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. Amour
10. Django Unchained

I hope Ang Lee wins because he did a damn good job with Life of Pi, but Spielberg has a shot with Lincoln. Don’t rule out Bigelow, her episodic intelligence film may be the underdog here.

Best Director
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Ben Affleck – Argo
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee – Life of Pi

Slim chance: Tom Hooper, Les Misérables; Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

As much as I could care less about DDL’s portrayal of Honest Abe, it is Joaquin Phoenix that grabs my vote. Both actors do a stupendous job with their over the top method acting, but it should prove worthy enough to be noticed by the Academy. The rest of them noms do well, but don’t stand a chance against.

Best Actor
Daniel Day Lewis – Lincoln
Hugh Jackman – Les Misérables
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook

Slim chance: Denzel Washington, Flight

Jennifer Lawrence has been the big talk of the town for Best Actress. Her emotional depth towers over the brooding Chastain. Were either of these performances phenomenal? No. But Lawrences performance I find better remembered. I have yet to see The Impossible and Amour but I hear good things.

Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts – The Impossible
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour

Slim chance: Helen Mirren, Hitchcock; Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea; Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Lincoln is getting too much love for its own good and I don’t like it. It was a better movie than most this year, but I don’t think it deserves all the praise it has gotten. Tommy Lee Jones is the front runner for now, but we still have a long way until February 24. Hoffman or DiCaprio should be the sure thing, but that’s just my opinion.

Best Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
Alan Arkin – Argo
Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook

Slim chance: Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike; Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained; Eddie Redmayne, Les Misérables; Javier Bardem, Skyfall

If Anne Hathaway doesn’t walk away with the Oscar than I may lose faith in the Academy. They have always done what’s right in this category, lately, but with Sally Field portraying old lady Lincoln, there could be a strong race to the finish.

Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway – Les Misérables
Sally Field – Lincoln
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Amy Adams – The Master
Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

The 85th Annual Academy Awards will be presented on Sunday, February 24, 2013, at the Dolby Theatre at Hollywood and Highland Center, and televised live on the ABC.